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Abstract Modeling experiments and field campaigns have evaluated shallow convective mixing as a potential constraint on the low‐cloud climate feedback, which is critical for establishing climate sensitivity. Yet the apparent relationship between low‐cloud fraction and shallow convective mixing differs substantially among general circulation models (GCMs), large eddy simulations, and both remote sensing and in situ observations. Here, we consider how changes in GCMs' representations of subgrid‐scale vertical moist fluxes can alter the cloud‐mixing relationship. Using vertical profiles of water vapor isotope ratios (δD) to characterize the strength of shallow convective mixing in a manner that can be compared directly to satellite observations, we evaluate the cloud‐mixing relationship produced in tiered experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). From versions 5 to 6 of CAM, the most notable physics change is CLUBB, a scheme that unifies the representation of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence through a joint probability density function (PDF) for subgrid velocity and moisture. CLUBB reduces the covariance between low‐cloud fraction and shallow convective mixing, producing a bivariate distribution that is more similar in character to monthly averaged satellite observations. Using parameter sensitivity experiments, we argue that CLUBB's ability to simulate skewness in the distribution of vertical velocity produces more isolated but stronger moist updrafts, which reduce the grid‐mean low‐cloud fraction while maintaining efficient hydrological connectivity between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. These results suggest that mixing is not an effective predictor of low‐cloud feedback in GCMs with PDF closure schemes. 

DAMP21ka.nc: NetCDF file containing the model prior, proxy values, and DAMP21ka reconstruction for lake status, precipitation, and temperature variables.\n\nclhancock/DAMP21ka-v1.0.0.zip: Notebooks used to generate figures for Hancock et al. (2024)\n\nHolocene-code_development_hydroclimate.zip: Code used to generate the DAMP21ka reconstruction \n\n \n\nHancock, C. L., Erb, M. P., McKay, N. P., Dee, S. G., and Ivanovic, R.: A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21,000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records" 

Global hydroclimate significantly differed from modern climate during the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka). Consequently, both periods have been described as either a partial or reverse analogue for current climate change. To reconstruct past hydroclimate, an offline paleoclimate data assimilation methodology is applied to a dataset of 216 lake status records which provide relative estimates of water level change. The proxy observations are integrated with the climate dynamics of two transient simulations (TraCE-21ka and HadCM3) using a multivariate proxy system model (PSM) which estimates relative lake status from available climate simulation variables. The resulting DAMP-21ka (Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns 21 000–0 BP) reanalysis reconstructs annual lake status and precipitation values at 500-year resolution and represents the first application of the methodology to global hydroclimate on timescales spanning the Holocene and longer. Validation using Pearson's correlation coefficients indicates that the reconstruction (0.24) is more skillful, on average, than model simulations (0.09), particularly in portions of North America and east Africa, where data density is high and proxy–model disagreement is prominent during the Holocene. Results of the PSM and assimilation are used to evaluate climatic controls on lake status, spatiotemporal patterns of moisture variability, and proxy–model disagreement. During the mid-Holocene, wetter conditions are reconstructed for northern and eastern Africa, Asia, and southern Australia, but in contrast to the model prior, negative anomalies are observed in North America, resulting in drier-than-modern conditions throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Proxy–model disagreement in western North America may reflect a bias in model simulations to stronger sea level pressure gradients in the North Pacific during the mid-Holocene. The data assimilation framework is able to reconcile these differences by integrating the constraints of proxy observations with the dynamics of the model prior to produce a more robust estimation of hydroclimate variability during the past 21 000 years. 

Abstract. The Mississippi River is a critical waterway in the United States, and hydrologic variability along its course represents a perennial threat to trade, agriculture, industry, the economy, and communities. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) complements observational records of river discharge by providing fully coupled output from a state-of-the-art earth system model that includes a river transport model. These simulations of past, historic, and projected river discharge have been widely used to assess the dynamics and causes of changes in the hydrology of the Mississippi River basin. Here, we compare observations and reanalysis datasets of key hydrologic variables to CESM1 output within the Mississippi River basin to evaluate model performance and bias. We show that the seasonality of simulated river discharge in CESM1 is shifted 2–3 months late relative to observations. This offset is attributed to seasonal biases in precipitation and runoff in the region. We also evaluate performance of several CMIP6 models over the Mississippi River basin, and show that runoff in other models — notably CESM2 — more closely simulates the seasonal trends in the reanalysis data. Our results have implications for model selection when assessing hydroclimate variability on the Mississippi River basin, and show that the seasonal timing of runoff can vary widely between models.  Our findings imply that continued improvements in the representation of land surface hydrology in earth system models may improve our ability to assess the causes and consequences of environmental change on terrestrial water resources and major river systems globally. 

Abstract Proxy‐based reconstructions of long‐term Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) variability reveal low‐frequency oscillations in regional TC landfalls over the Common Era. However, the limited spatial coverage and increased uncertainty of the proxy records complicates assessments of this feature. Here we present a new multi‐ensemble set of synthetic TCs downscaled from the Last Millennium Reanalysis project, which is based on sea surface temperatures that more accurately reflect past conditions. Throughout ensemble members, there are coherent multi‐centennial shifts in landfalls with persistent intervals of increased (decreased) occurrence along the eastern US concurrent with inverse activity in the southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, associated with basin‐scale redistributions of storm tracks. The emergent TC‐dipole from modeled climate provides context and support for its presence within proxy‐reconstructions. Furthermore, dipole recurrence across ensembles demonstrates that it arises from sea surface temperature‐informed climate processes. However, timing differences between ensembles indicate that transient atmospheric variability influences dipole position. 

Abstract The short and biased observational record of tropical cyclones (TCs) limits scientific understanding of how these destructive storms respond to climate forcing. Paleohurricane records use natural archives (tree rings, coarse‐grained sediment) to reconstruct TC properties (frequency and intensity of rainfall, wind) over the past few hundreds to thousands of years. However, different sensitivities and sampling biases in the various paleohurricane proxies restrict our ability to compile these records into regional or basin‐scale TC estimates. Here we test how well pseudo tree‐ring records of paleohurricanes capture TC rainfall and occurrence. Using a large set of statistically downscaled storms forced with the Max Planck Institute (MPI‐ESM‐P) model as boundary conditions for the past millennium, we generate a 1000‐member ensemble of pseudo tree‐ring records of latewood width from southern Mississippi using a Poisson process‐based random draw. Pseudo records convert synthetic TC rainfall into latewood width using a previously published statistical calibration and seasonal sensitivity. We show that fourth quantile thresholds applied to pseudo latewood data successfully identify years with TC strikes. Comparing pseudo tree‐ring records with pseudo sediment records from the Gulf Coast indicates promise in combining proxies sensitive to TC rainfall with proxies sensitive to storm overwash. Sediment records that are sensitive to lower intensity storms (≥Saffir Simpson Category 1) are more compatible with tree‐ring records, suggesting a need for more of these low intensity threshold records in the Gulf to facilitate future multi‐proxy efforts to reconstruct past TC properties. 

Abstract The upper and lower jaws of some wrasses (Eupercaria: Labridae) possess teeth that have been coalesced into a strong durable beak that they use to graze on hard coral skeletons, hard-shelled prey, and algae, allowing many of these species to function as important ecosystem engineers in their respective marine habitats. While the ecological impact of the beak is well understood, questions remain about its evolutionary history and the effects of this innovation on the downstream patterns of morphological evolution. Here we analyze 3D cranial shape data in a phylogenetic comparative framework and use paleoclimate modeling to reconstruct the evolution of the labrid beak across 205 species. We find that wrasses evolved beaks three times independently, once within odacines and twice within parrotfishes in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. We find an increase in the rate of shape evolution in the Scarus+Chlorurus+Hipposcarus (SCH) clade of parrotfishes likely driven by the evolution of the intramandibular joint. Paleoclimate modeling shows that the SCH clade of parrotfishes rapidly morphologically diversified during the middle Miocene. We hypothesize that possession of a beak in the SCH clade coupled with favorable environmental conditions allowed these species to rapidly morphologically diversify. 

Abstract The Mississippi River represents a major commercial waterway, and periods of anomalously low river levels disrupt riverine transport. These low-flow events occur periodically, with a recent event in the fall of 2022 slowing barge traffic and generating sharp increases in riverine transportation costs. Here we combine instrumental river gage observations from the lower Mississippi River with output from the Community Earth System Model v2 Large Ensemble (LENS2) to evaluate historical trends and future projections of Mississippi River low streamflow extremes, place the 2022 low-flow event in a broader temporal context, and assess the hydroclimatic mechanisms that mediate the occurrence of low-flows. We show that the severity and duration of low-flow events gradually decreased between 1950 and 1980 coincident with the establishment of artificial reservoirs. In the context of the last ∼70 years, the 2022 low-flow event was less severe in terms of stage or discharge minima than other low-flow events of the mid- and late-20th century. Model simulations from the LENS2 dataset show that, under a moderate-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), the severity and duration of low-flow events is projected to decrease through to the end of the 21st century. Finally, we use the large sample size afforded by the LENS2 dataset to show that low-flow events on the Mississippi River are associated with cold tropical Pacific forcing (i.e. La Niña conditions), providing support for the hypothesis that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation plays a critical role in mediating Mississippi River discharge extremes. We anticipate that our findings describing the trends in and hydroclimatic mechanisms of Mississippi River low-flow occurrence will aid water resource managers to reduce the negative impacts of low water levels on riverine transport.